Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 2.035053 2.137762 2.247382 2.373918 2.517055 2.675320 2.865535
2025-07-06 1.887001 2.014508 2.155702 2.325725 2.527909 2.764836 3.070358
2025-07-13 1.825976 1.974959 2.145019 2.357362 2.621472 2.948550 3.401771
2025-07-20 1.794507 1.963364 2.161421 2.417183 2.749455 3.184899 3.838087
2025-07-27 1.742165 1.921555 2.136081 2.420034 2.801361 3.324222 4.163850
2025-08-03 1.697953 1.885785 2.114203 2.423223 2.850963 3.463290 4.517172
2025-08-10 1.632244 1.819642 2.049635 2.364602 2.808167 3.459485 4.629873
2025-08-17 1.591587 1.782524 2.019534 2.349097 2.823543 3.543785 4.917111
2025-08-24 1.556107 1.750086 1.993371 2.336461 2.840742 3.631477 5.234204
2025-08-31 1.525172 1.721951 1.971138 2.327265 2.861283 3.726025 5.595317
2025-09-07 1.505832 1.707701 1.966200 2.341457 2.917807 3.889045 6.176176
2025-09-14 1.458109 1.655007 1.907686 2.275621 2.843425 3.808049 6.121520
2025-09-21 1.434027 1.633458 1.891688 2.272535 2.872176 3.926975 6.673842
2025-09-28 1.397131 1.593894 1.849670 2.229029 2.831716 3.908930 6.828668
2025-10-05 1.387868 1.590375 1.856610 2.258024 2.912964 4.142069 7.945854
2025-10-12 1.387577 1.598571 1.879793 2.312504 3.042812 4.505898 10.086329
2025-10-19 1.370603 1.583664 1.869804 2.315130 3.081521 4.678753 11.760349
2025-10-26 1.354703 1.569669 1.860464 2.318042 3.120735 4.862337 14.110890
2025-11-02 1.322462 1.532585 1.816960 2.264752 3.051255 4.762282 13.968909
2025-11-09 1.303496 1.513253 1.798430 2.250635 3.054766 4.851807 16.014310
2025-11-16 1.286209 1.495790 1.782029 2.239121 3.062227 4.954013 18.968254
2025-11-23 1.270632 1.480301 1.767993 2.230736 3.074988 5.074419 23.751682
2025-11-30 1.261945 1.474060 1.767131 2.243675 3.130632 5.333235 40.874316